Fantasy Football Rookie Report: Let's see if you can trust Ashton Jeanty, Harold Fannin Jr. and more talented 1st-year players in Week 16
- - Fantasy Football Rookie Report: Let's see if you can trust Ashton Jeanty, Harold Fannin Jr. and more talented 1st-year players in Week 16
Ray GarvinDecember 18, 2025 at 4:11 AM
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Week 16 — the fantasy football playoffs. It’s win-or-go-home season. Some rookies get smash spots, others run headfirst into brick walls. Here’s the Week 16 Rookie Report with five prove-it matchups, and a read on what to expect in your playoff matchup.
Ashton Jeanty vs. Texans
This is volume versus reality. Over the last month, Jeanty has owned the Raiders backfield with a 93% rush share, 89% of the rushing touches, 79% of the snaps and 26 targets, yet he’s 30th in half-PPR points per game and sits RB19 in half-PPR on the season. That gap is the whole story.
Houston’s defense is extremely difficult against the run. They have faced top backs all year and only one runner has cleared 100 yards against them: James Cook, who is second in the NFL in rushing. Look at the rest of the names and results: Kyren Williams, 66 yards; Bucky Irving, 71 and Travis Etienne, 56. Derrick Henry had 33. San Francisco did not get there, Denver did not either and Jacksonville did not in the rematch. This Houston front wins early, rallies late and keeps rush lanes tight.
Add in the Raiders quarterback mess and eight straight losses on a trip to Houston and the game-script risk spikes. If Las Vegas falls behind, Jeanty is not proficient enough as a receiver to offset a quiet day on the ground. You are betting on raw touches, not scoring position.
Start or sit? Sit if you have a real pivot point. If you are stuck, treat him like a low-end RB3 who needs receptions to thrive.
Week 16 Rookie Outlook: Elite usage meets elite defense. I am not forcing Jeanty into Week 16 lineups.
Harold Fannin Jr. vs Bills
Harold Fannin Jr. leads the Browns in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns and yards per game while sharing snaps with David Njoku. Over the past month, he owns a 28.5% target share and ranks seventh in targets per route run. Since 2000, only three tight ends have more targets through their first 14 career games than Fannin: Brock Bowers, Jeremy Shockey and Evan Engram. Fannin sits fifth at 667 receiving yards.
Buffalo is a brutal draw for tight ends. Per True Media, the Bills allow the fewest receiving yards per game to the position at 8.8. They are second-best in opponent passing yards allowed at 169.5 per game. They have kept top tight ends quiet all season, including holding Travis Kelce to 66 yards and other tight ends like Kyle Pitts Sr., Mark Andrews and Hunter Henry to minimal production in other weeks.
Add in an inexperienced quarterback in Shedeur Sanders, a shaky offensive line and some disjointedness with the offensive game plan and the path narrows. I don’t think this is a Fannin week. If anything, the rookie you want from this matchup is RB Quinshon Judkins because Buffalo can be had on the ground.
Week 16 Rookie Outlook: If you have a real pivot, go there. If you are stuck, treat Fannin like a volume-dependent TE2 and hope the red zone shows up.
Tyler Warren vs 49ers
This Colts season slid off the rails. Four straight losses since the Germany win and now San Francisco comes to town on Monday night with Philip Rivers making his second start of the comeback. He is 44 years old, and you can see it in the way the ball travels. He can move the offense in spurts, he can manage a drive but the downfield juice is limited and that matters for a tight end living on timing windows and seams.
Warren is still involved. He led the room with 6 targets last week and caught three passes for 19 yards. The bigger trend is what worries me. Over his last seven games, he has one touchdown, only one game over 70 yards and he has been under 50 yards for the last month. This was trending the wrong way before Rivers and the ceiling did not show up in Rivers’ first start.
The matchup is not a pushover either. The 49ers are stout against the run and sit mid-pack in opponent rushing yards per game, but they do give up some passing explosives. If Rivers was going to get there, this spot is friendlier than Seattle, yet I still do not trust it. I do not want to start any Colts pass catcher outside of Jonathan Taylor. This is less about Warren and more about a quarterback who will live under the sticks and a passing plan that feels out of sync.
Week 16 Rookie Outlook: Treat Warren like low-end TE1. He should still get volume, but the quality of the looks is the problem.
Tetairoa McMillan vs Buccaneers
Two 7-7 teams, two meetings in three weeks. This is the kind of stage where Tetairoa McMillan can tilt the division race against a leaky Tampa Bay secondary. Tampa Bay has allowed 247 passing yards per game on the season, third most. Over the last month, that has climbed to 260 per game, fifth-most in the NFL. In that span, it has given up 21 explosive pass plays and a league worst 43.2% of opponent attempts have turned into first downs or touchdowns. Its PPR receiving points allowed to wideouts over the last month sits at 63, which ranks 31st.
McMillan leads Carolina in receiving but the recent box scores have been light. He has not topped two catches in three straight games, he has used touchdowns to keep the floor intact and he dropped another score in Week 15. None of that lives in a vacuum. He needs Bryce Young to play better. The ceiling is real with Bryce because he has four 3-TD games this season and he can extend plays, but the volume has been thin. Over the last eight games, he has been asked to throw more than 25 times only twice, which has dragged this passing attack into too many 100-yard days.
The positive note for McMillan is that the usage is still his. He is the first read most often and he owns the money targets. Jalen Coker has earned some work but McMillan’s role remains secure.
Carolina does not throw the ball a lot. You are hoping Bryce and McMillan connect early and the efficiency is there, then you are relying on a shot play or a red-zone target to land.
Week 16 Rookie Outlook: McMillan is a WR2 with touchdown upside and real WR1 spike potential. If you have a real pivot, go there. If you are stuck, treat him like a high-variance WR3 who can flip a matchup with one play.
Emeka Egbuka vs Panthers
The Bucs’ WR room is crowded again, and it shows. Mike Evans returned and looked like the best receiver on the field. He made tough contested grabs, extended for throws and battled through injury. He led with 12 targets and the eye test said the offense still runs through him. Egbuka finished second in targets and turned in 4 for 64 with real downfield work while Chris Godwin snagged the touchdown. With Bucky Irving back, the touches get spread around even more.
Carolina is not a shutdown unit but it is not a layup either. It allows 225 net passing yards per game, 11th most. Over the last month, it ranks 12th in PPR points allowed to wideouts at 53. It is among the best at limiting explosive passes in that span, which pushes this game toward timing throws, third downs and red-zone execution, rather than free chunk gains.
Baker Mayfield has to play better. He was better against Atlanta but there were still balls sailing over heads and missed windows. In the last five games, he has topped 60% completions only once and he has thrown multiple touchdowns only once, also against Atlanta. Egbuka is talented and can separate; he just needs more precision and more red-zone intent from Baker to unlock a ceiling with Evans and Godwin now healthy.
Week 16 Rookie Outlook: Egbuka is a WR3 flex with touchdown upside. If you have a real pivot go there. If you are stuck, treat him like a matchup-driven flex who needs a red-zone look.
Source: “AOL Sports”
