NFL Week 16 betting, odds, lines: 5 biggest storylines, including Josh Allen back in the MVP race
- - NFL Week 16 betting, odds, lines: 5 biggest storylines, including Josh Allen back in the MVP race
Frank Schwab December 17, 2025 at 2:25 AM
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We might be getting to the point in the NFL season in which some of the worst teams aren't capable of covering a big spread.
There were five double-digit underdogs last week. Four of them failed to cover, and the list of teams that got blown out in that situation are some of the worst in the NFL: Raiders, Cardinals, Titans, Jets. The only double-digit team to cover was the Colts, who are 8-6 but were starting 44-year-old Philip Rivers on the road at the Seahawks. The double-digit underdogs who were uncompetitive looked like they're ready for the season to end.
This week there are two double-digit underdogs: Browns at home vs. Bills (-10), and Raiders at Texans (-14.5). It's worth seeing if last week's trend continues.
Here are the top betting storylines going into Week 16 of the NFL season, with all odds from BetMGM:
Josh Allen getting back in MVP race
The odds board last week indicated that NFL MVP was a two-man race between Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye. The reigning MVP had something to say about it.
Allen had another big game, carrying the Bills back from a 21-0 deficit at the Patriots to win and stay alive for the AFC East championship. It also kept Allen alive for the MVP as well.
Stafford is a big favorite at -300 after Maye's Patriots lost on Sunday. Maye is +400, and Allen went all the way to +500. Two weeks ago he was +2500 and last week he was +1400. Allen's biggest problem is that the Patriots are still favored to win the AFC East, and a quarterback from a wild-card team hasn't won MVP since 2008. But it's hard to watch Allen play every week and not believe he's deserving of another MVP.
Josh Allen led the Bills to a big win over the Patriots, which gave his MVP odds a bump. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) (Sarah Stier via Getty Images)Packers Super Bowl odds shift
It shouldn't be a surprise that the Packers' Super Bowl odds got worse since last week. They lost to the Broncos as a 2.5-point favorite, which makes the road to winning the NFC North tougher, and they saw defensive end Micah Parsons suffer a season-ending torn ACL.
The Packers were +800 to win the Super Bowl last week, but that has moved to +1400 this week. That shouldn't be a big surprise. Losing Parsons, on top of some other key injuries like Tucker Kraft's season-ending knee injury, is a big obstacle in the Packers' quest for a Super Bowl. The Packers are barely favored to win the NFC North anymore.
Packers still favored at Bears
Saturday night's game between the Packers and Bears should decide the NFC North title. Oddsmakers like the Packers' chances, even on the road.
The Packers are a 1.5-point road favorite at Chicago. They're also a slight -105 favorite to win the division, with the Bears at +110. The Packers are shorthanded, but there still is enough faith in them outlasting the Bears on Saturday and for the division.
Seahawks are a home underdog
One of the NFL's best matchups of the season has an interesting point spread.
The 11-3 Rams play at the 11-3 Seahawks on Thursday night in what amounts to an NFC West championship game, and the Rams are road favorites. They're -1 at Seattle. The Rams beat Seattle 21-19 on Nov. 16 when the Seahawks missed a long field goal as time expired. Sam Darnold threw four interceptions in that game. Darnold also struggled in the playoffs against the Rams last season, when he was with the Vikings. That might be a factor in Seattle being underdogs. The Rams are still Super Bowl favorites, but perhaps that changes if Seattle pulls off the (very minor) upset on Thursday.
Ravens favored over 11-3 Patriots
There's not much faith in the Patriots in the betting market.
Last week the Patriots were home underdogs to the Bills, and they ended up blowing a big lead and losing. This week the 11-3 Patriots go on the road against a 7-7 Ravens team that has been disappointing all season, and they're underdogs by a full field goal. That could be a reflection of the belief that the Ravens are back after a 24-0 win at Cincinnati last week. But the Patriots' odds have rarely matched their record this season. The Patriots are still -250 to win the AFC East, though that could have a big shift if they lose to the Ravens and the Bills win as 10-point favorites against the Browns.
Source: “AOL Sports”
